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"I'll be sitting in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, joking that if our conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up talk next year.

There is never any break for prime ministers. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his close friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was considerably lengthier than typical, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

But as the year starts, Starmer appears to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just a bit of relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly seemed to have resulted in improved morale than at the saggy end of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

Yet, are he and his allies deluding themselves if they think his political fate are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the PM is that a significant number of his fellow MPs believe he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and get him out in 2026.

But Starmer was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "assessed at the next election", arguing no one would remove his five-year mandate from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to change its leader.

"This is the fight of our times and I aim to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

The May Elections

The problem for the prime minister is that he will be judged long before then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to contend, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But even though he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should a his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his unpopularity by saying the public was reasonably impatient for things to get better. He sought to assure me, and the public, that this year would be a change.

The economic situation would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the government implemented during their initial choppy year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His central argument is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have spoken with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more vigour, more speed and more immediacy, his arguments were well-known ones.

Given that he is in this much political peril, should he consider a new narrative?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because government is difficult, but because he and his team have erred, including in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting clear political perils as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be comfortable with these events seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "longtime proponent of international law" but the public "simply do not have the entire story at the moment".

Critics called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is likely to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also long been growing tension in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's doing that, but his new firmer pledge to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably provoke protests that he is going back on his promise never to try to undo the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will delight some on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to